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July 4, 2009
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A quick ALDS breakdown…
Catcher: Jason Varitek vs. Jeff Mathis/Mike Napoli
I don’t know too much about either of these guys, except that they’re not Jason Varitek, and that’s enough to get the edge in this one. Why aren’t more people talking about the fact that this series might be the last time we see ‘Tek in a Sox uniform. I mean is there anyway that Scott Boras and the Sox can reach a compromise on this one? I don’t see it happening.
Edge: Angels
First Base: Kevin Youkilis vs. Mark Texiera
If my team’s down by two runs in the ninth with the bases loaded and two outs, I’d rather have Texiera at the plate. But if I have to pick one of these guys to be my first baseman for every game in a five games series, I’m taking Youk. Texiera might have Youk beat in homers and RBI, but let’s not forget that Tex played the first half of the season batting behind Chipper Jones (who was reaching base roughly 5000% of the time) and the second half batting in front of Vlad Guerrero (who’s been known to hit a baseball).
Bonus Stat: This year, on opening day in Atlanta, the Pirates beat the Braves 12-11 in 12 innings, but somehow Jason Bay (hitting third for Pittsburgh) and Texiera (clean up for the Braves) went a combined 0-12 with eight men left on base,
Edge: Sox
Second Base: Dustin Pedroia vs. Howie Kendrick
I’m a big Kendrick fan. When he’s healthy, he one of the deadlier young hitters in the game. But unfortunately for the Angels, Kendrick had more doctors appointments than Abe Vigoda these last three seasons. It also doesn’t help his case that the second baseman in the other dugout is the AL MVP.
Edge: Sox
Shortstop: Jed Lowrie vs. Erick Aybar
I’ve got to be honest, until about five seconds ago I thought that this Aybar and the guy on Tampa were the same person. Apparently they’re brothers. Also apparent? Erick is a god awful shortstop. His 18 errors this season are the third most of any SS in the majors, and he only played 95 games! Lowrie’s played 45 games for the Sox and has a whopping zero errors.
At the plate, they pretty much bring the same thing to the table—although, as of late, Lowrie hasn’t brought much of anything.
Bonus stat: Despite only 79 starts at shortstop (before missing three months with a sore hamstring), Julio Lugo is tied for the fifth with 16 errors.
Edge: Sox
Third Base: Mike Lowell vs. Chone Figgins
I’m not optimistic about "Maximus" Lowell playing in this series. I think he’ll try, but I’d be surprised if he’s still in the game by the fifth inning tonight. Without Lowell on the field the Sox are either left with a hole at third or a hole at first that would rival the size of the hole in Varitek’s bat. Not ideal for the playoffs.
Edge: Angels
Left Field: Jason Bay vs. Garret Anderson
Garrett Anderson: Professional Hitter has seen better days, but, not surprisingly, he still managed to finish the season with a respectable .293/15/84 split. Still, Bay’s the obvious choice here, mostly because of toughness. I mean, who are you taking in a fight: The guy form Compton or the Canadian Gonzaga grad? Wait a second…
Edge: Sox
Center Field: Jacoby Ellsbury/Coco Crisp vs. Torii Hunter
Hunter might have the advantage here in the field, but… well, he’s also got it at the plate. He’s now hit at least 20 homers in seven of the last eight seasons, and is bound to have at least one huge hit and a couple game changing defensive plays over a four to five game series. Ellsbury and Crisp just need to work the pitch counts, set the table and let the Sox big bats eat.
Edge: Angels
Right Field: JD Drew vs. Vlad Guerrero
Vlad has 392 career home runs, has hit over .300 in each of the last 11 seasons and hasn’t played fewer than 150 games in a season since joining the Angels in 2004; Drew’s liable to miss two games of this series with a tummy ache.
Edge: Angels
DH: David Ortiz vs. Juan Rivera/Gary Matthews
Big Papi might only see three decent pitches the entire series, but that might be all he needs to out perform these two has beens.
Edge: Sox
Starting Pitchers: John Lackey, Erwin Santana and Tony Saunders vs. Jon Lester, Dice-K and Josh Beckett.
Lackey’s a great post-season pitcher (unless he’s facing the Red Sox), Santana’s a bit of a loose cannon and Saunders is the only guy to ever have his left arm fall off during a game. Thanks, but I’ll take the Sox here. If Beckett can’t go on Sunday, this obviously changes a little, but let’s not speculate about that yet—for the children’s sake.
Note: Regardless of which team he’s on, Tony Saunders’ story is a pretty touching one. You can’t help but appreciate all he’s overcome.
Edge: Sox
Bullpen: Hideki Okajima, Javier Lopez, Justin Masterson and Manny Delcarmen vs. Scot Shields, Justin Speier, Jose Arredondo and Darren Oliver
While Shields and Speier get the most action out of the bullpen, the third and fourth guys— Oliver and Arredondo—have been where it’s at. The two were a combined 17-3 with a 2.30 ERA, 103 K and 38 BB in 2008.
Edge: Angels
Closer: K-Rod vs. Jonathan Papelbon
Up until September, I would have given the Sox the edge here, but Paps’ recent inconsistency sort of kills that argument. Stil, despite K-Rod’s absurd save numbers (and save opportunities), the stats are nearly identical.
Paps K-Rod
IP 69.3 68.3
Hits 58 54
ER 18 17
HR 4 4
SO 77 77
BB 8 34
ERA 2.34 2.24
WHIP .952 1.28
For the verdict on this one, we turn it over to Nick Bakay,
Edge: "Puuush"
Final Score: Sox, 6-5-1
Prediction: Sox in 4
Two things: first, K-Rod has almost four times as many walks as Papelbon. I don’t know about you, but for me, putting four times as many men on base does not equal “push” when everything else (as you pointed out) is equal.
Second, I don’t get it: is the Tony Saunders thing a joke? Because if it is, it goes on a little too long - especially since Joe Saunders is arguably the best pitcher on the Angels’ staff and puts a regular hurtin’ on the Sox. If it isn’t a joke…well, we’ll not go there.
i apologize if you thought it went on too long. but thank you for reading the whole thing anyway.
like i said in the closer explanation: If you’d asked me on Aug. 30 which guy I’d want more, I’d have chosen paps in a second. Saves can be a deceiving stat and he had the advantage over K-Rod in every other important statistical category. But you probably can’t deny (or maybe you can) that September was Papelbon’s worst month by far. He gave up 17 hits in 11+ innings and sported an ERA of 5.56. I’d say that evens the field a little, especially considering K-Rod only walked eight guys after the All-Star Break.
thanks for reading