Sure, tonight’s game against the New York Jets is full of pomp and circumstance, but does it really matter in the grand scheme of things?

Here’s why it doesn’t, at least in this writer’s eyes. I was asked to predict the outcome of tonight’s game by a New York media outlet catering to Jets fans.  Then I was asked again to predict the outcome of the game on a Connecticut radio station heavily influenced by the New York pull.  Then I had to make my pick for a Patriots fan website.  Then I made my picks for Comcast’s Pick’em contest.

After all that, each time I struggled with the question; who do I pick?

5 pick’ems including the one for Comcast, and each time I had to struggle with the Patriots pick.  Don’t get me wrong, it’s not the pick of who will win, it’s by how much.  That’s when I realized it doesn’t really matter. Whomever wins will controll the AFC East, and that’s all that really matters now.

Pick’ems are good for the betters and  they’re good for Vegas, but the only thing that really matters is who actually wins the game.

So with that being said, here are some things that got me to make up my mind.

1) Adalius Thomas is out

The impact of losing Thomas is huge in the Patriots locker room. Richardd Seymour, Ty Warren, even Pierre Woods talked about how big of a loss Thomas was to the defense.  One thing that gave me encouragement that the Patriots could still deal with his absence was the reaction from those players.

“It’s a huge loss for us. He was asked to do a lot of things on this defense,” said Warren. “But we have a lot of confidence that whoever steps in for him will be able to fit right in and we’ll help him out doing that.”

Reserve defender Jarvis Green weighed in on the topic.

“It is a big loss with Adalius [Thomas], but its’ still football,” said Green. “We have to keep going. We have other guys that are going to help step in. That happens here a lot; we have guys come in when we lose key guys. We have to keep playing football.”

2)  The Patriots Secondary Still has issues

Although Ellis Hobbs is hurt, and Lewis Sanders is out, the Patriots continue to field enough bodies to get the job done in the secondary.  The concern is giving up the big play. The Patriots have given up more than their share of plays down the field due to blown coverage or bad plays. Look for the Jets to call more plays down the field to test the secondary.

3)  The Jets Can Really Run the Ball

New York is ranked as the 9th best rushing offense, but that doesn’t quite tell the tale. Thomas Jones has been able to get the ball up the middle when the Jets need them to.  After struggling early, New York is averaging over 120 yards per game on the ground.

With Warren out and Thomas out, the Jets will run the ball, and probably find a lot of success there.

4) Matt Cassel and Randy Moss.

It’s up to Casel to keep the Patriots in the game this week.  Eric Mangini knows that the Patriot use the running game to balance their offense, and balance is critical to keep Cassel on track. Take away the run, and the Patriots will need a first year starter in just his ninth pro game to try to win it for them.  That matchup favors New York in a big way.  Cassel will need ot find his connection with Randy Moss in this game to keep the Jets defense honest.  Cassel hasn’t been able to do that so far, so there’s little reason for the Jets to respect the deep threat from the Patriots.

5) Who Will Run The Ball?

The Patriots have BenJarvus Green-Ellis poised to continue his rookie success against the Jets.  After rushing for over 100 yards last week against the Buffalo Bill, Green-Ellis is rapidly becoming a marked man.  Should Sammy Morris or LaMont Jordan return to the lineup, the Patriots will have the added luxury of experience at the tailback position. Without that pair, it will be up to Kevin Faulk, Green-Ellis and heath Evans to find a way to take the heat off Cassel in the passing game. 

Of course, if the Patriots fall behind early, the running game may become a moot point.