The Celtics Bench is NOT the Problem (Entirely)
Thursday, January 1, 2009 at 5:38 pm ET
There has been panic on the parquet resulting from the Celtics recent 1-3 west coast road trip over the holidays, with the bench and rotations being labeled as the biggest culprits. Attention was being drawn to these issues before the road trip, precipitated by the fact that the bench seemed to lose outrageous leads developed by the Celtics starters. The Boston Globe Dec. 25th article prior to the headline tilt against the Lakers, entitled Celtics Find Bench Is Giving Way had this to say:
“The bench started the season as the Celtics’ bailout plan. They inherited double-digit deficits in seven of the first 10 games and in most cases they found a way to right the ship as the starters were finding their way.
Over the past month, they’ve come into games with double-digit leads and let them slip away. The second unit’s top job is to protect a lead. It’s something those players have struggled with over the past few weeks.”
Garnett went as far as saying “We give teams life” when the bench comes in.
Now after the woeful road trip, it appears that the panic button has been hit by many – especially with the knowledge that PJ Brown is now officially retired. Much of the blame now squarely is laid on the bench, as Jon Duke of the
Celtics Stuff Live Blog has noted that there was an offensive goose egg laid by the bench players during the three losses to Portland, Golden State and the Lakers. But let’s consider the remedies that have been bantered about.
The Rotation Story
Some of the above articles point to the unique rotation scheme that Doc employs where the starters are cleared and 4 to 5 bench players come in. This phenomena was actually reported way back on Dec. 1
st by yours truly at CSL Blog in
Celtics Rotating Toward the Limits.
Doc’s routine has been to use an “all-bench” line-up early in the 2nd quarter and then again during the transition from the 3rd quarter to the 4th quarter. However, Doc seems to have backed off the “all-bench” rotation bit as of late, leaving either Ray Allen or Paul Pierce to accompany the likes of Eddie House, Leon Powe, Glen Davis and Tony Allen.
So how many teams actually clear the bench early in the game? I’d venture to say not many. Looking at the Lakers rotation, they never had less than 2 starters and Golden State always had at least 3 starters on the floor at all times. Portland has always played a deeper rotation and is more similar to the Celtics in this respect.
Doc has consistently given his starters a simultaneous blow with some success mind you, as they did just come off a 19-game win streak. The ugly caveat as mentioned above is that some big leads were coughed up from time to time.
So to further a point made by Karalis above, is it not an option to sprinkle more starters with the bench players, by simply playing the starting 5 together less as a unit during the game? This is analogous to the environmental engineering adage, “dilution is the solution to pollution”. The fact is that the Boston starters have played together more as a unit than any other starting unit. From
82games.com, the top 10 starting units in minutes played together is as follows:
Minutes Played through Dec 30th
|
Team
|
Unit
|
Total Minutes
|
|
BOS
|
Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins
|
672
|
|
CLE
|
Williams-West-James-Wallace-Ilgauskas
|
437
|
|
PHI
|
Miller-Iguodala-Young-Brand-Dalembert
|
342
|
|
LAL
|
Fisher-Bryant-Radmanovic-Gasol-Bynum
|
302
|
|
LAC
|
B.Davis-Gordon-Thornton-Randolph-Camby
|
297
|
|
NJN
|
Harris-Carter-Simmons-Yi-Lopez
|
281
|
|
DEN
|
Billups-Jones-Anthony-Martin-Nene
|
273
|
|
ATL
|
Bibby-Johnson-Williams-Smith-Horford
|
272
|
|
IND
|
Ford-Daniels-Granger-Murphy-Nesterovic
|
229
|
|
ORL
|
Nelson-Bogans-Turkoglu-Lewis-Howard
|
226
|
No veteran team, i.e., championship contending team, has been blessed with health amongst the starting five like the Celtics, Lakers and the Cavaliers have. These three teams are of course at the top of everyone’s current power rankings, reinforcing health equates with success in the NBA. However, you can see that Doc’s approach is more of an “all or nothing” one, where he doesn’t break up that starters much during the game. Note that the starters are not playing extended minutes, but that they play together as a unit for extended minutes compared to the other team’s starting units.
So the suggestion to Doc is to give up the playoff-style approach of playing the starter’s together so much, and break it up more. More on this in a future article. . . . But this phenomena could simply be the result of Doc not having the Swiss Army knife equivalent of a James Posey as the 6th man.
The Big Problem
Steve Bulpett of the Boston Herald in
Defeat Reveals Big Problem made a point of the height issue of Boston’s frontline after the Lakers game. The Lakers has an obvious advantage in the post with Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol and Odom available, which can dwarf the Celtics and most other team’s frontline.
However, what was more interesting was that in the Portland game, Nate McMillan took note and proceeded to trot out Greg Oden and Joe Przybilla together in the lineup for perhaps the first time this season. They played together for about 3 minutes late in the 3rd and Portland had +7 points advantage when they were on the court, going against a frontline of Glen Davis and Kendrick Perkins on the Celtics side. Davis spelled Garnett and then Perkins during which the Celtics went -9 for plus-minus, giving up the lead to Portland in the meanwhile. Of course, Davis has been a lightning rod for any discussion of a height disadvantage along the Celtics frontline, perhaps for good reason. So with Portland’s substitution, apparently opponents are taking note and seizing the opportunity to go big on the Celtics when Garnett is out of the line-up.
I’ve not seen enough of Patrick O’Bryant (POB) to think he shouldn’t get additional run for big match-ups. Otherwise, if the Celtics are going to stall on the POB experiment, Danny Ainge is going to be forced to get a big guy this mid-season via a trade or free agency. To me, committing to POB seems like the easier solution, as I’ve liked what I’ve seen in his limited minutes on the floor. And of all the bench players, sneaking POB in the lineup for Perkins to play along side Garnett seems more palatable, and allows Leon Powe or Big Baby to play alongside Perkins during a separate rotation to give Garnett rest.
Doc should think about playing POB more – because I don’t see an easy solution to getting a big unless a major trade is made to procure someone like Brad Miller or Joe Smith (see
Various Rumors on celticsblog.com). POB is an easy in-house solution that Doc just has to let play its course before justifying mortgaging Celtics youth in a trade to bring in a high-priced veteran big via a trade.
Finally, Give the Bench a Break
I can’t close the article after the dismal road trip without casting blame in the appropriate places (sorry Duke!). True the bench failed to score against Portland, and perhaps must take blame for that loss. However, the Celtics starters gave up 6 points during a Portland run during the last 4:30 of the 2nd quarter, and then only played the Trailblazers to a stalemate during the opening 8:40 of the 3rd quarter.
Against the Warriors, it was the Celtics version of a small ball line-up of Rondo-House-RAllen-Pierce-Garnett that gave up 11 points and the lead in the middle of the 4th quarter. You cannot blame the bench for losing against Golden State – that’s on the starters.
And against the Lakers, the 13-2 Lakers run at the end of the game to seal the victory was against the Celtics starters, not the bench. The Celtics bench with Ray Allen actually had an 8-2 run earlier in the 4th quarter that grabbed the lead temporarily for the Celtics.
Looking at the losses the Celtics had against these three teams, the biggest change in production was seen by all the starters excluding Pierce – Pierce seems to be the only true road warrior amongst the Celtics starters. . . . See how the production of the starters pales during the road losses.
Celtics Starters Production
(normalized to 33 mpg average)
|
Starters
|
3M
|
TR
|
AS
|
ST
|
TO
|
BK
|
PPG
|
|
Pre-Road Trip
|
3.9
|
31.8
|
18.0
|
5.9
|
11.1
|
3.6
|
73.9
|
|
3 Losses During Road Trip
|
3.3
|
24.4
|
14.5
|
5.1
|
11.8
|
2.4
|
62.0
|
The Celtics starters actually averaged 37 minutes per game during the losses, compared to averaging 33 mpg prior to the road trip, and so the numbers were adjusted.
So
the Duke mentioned that the average margin of loss during the road trip was 8 points, but you can see that the starters produced over 12 points per game
less than their average, accounting for their increased minutes.
The starters have been sluggish and must share the blame during this finger-pointing session taking place in the blogosphere. The bench needs work, but if the starters don’t have an assassin type attitude during the close of games, it doesn’t matter what the bench does.
Excellent article Jack.
You counterintuitively bring out some otherwise overlooked points. You hit on a few points I was going to mention in a similar appraisal of recent play, but you illustrated your points well.
The bench isn’t the only issue. I think Doc will acknowledge that. He said himself that there was a lot of “slippage” they needed to work on. I’m sure he wasn’t just referring to the bench. In fact, the on court disagreements have been among the starters. There are plenty of missed assignments among them as well. Replays of any recent game will reveal that fact.
You hit on one thought I will be making, and that is to abandon the second unit concept, which again, I think Doc has finally given up on.
Happy New Year!
T
Good Stuff Jack!
I agree on many points, but I can’t agree on POB. I think he’s pretty suspect for the playoffs. Patch-work for the regular season, maybe, but not ready for May/June IMO.
The Defensive rotations have been horrible and the timely o-boards they have given up speak to mental fatigue I think. The reduction in offensive production could probably be linked to those two factors. Less long rebounds and fewer forced turnovers is preventing the Celtics from getting out in transition and taking advantage of the Ray Allen/Rajon Rondo combo that was so effective just 2 weeks ago.
I agree that as much blame, if not more, lies with the starters for the 3 losses. However, I wonder if this team hasn’t been just plain bad across the board. I wonder how the “Celtics Starters Production” per 33 min would compare to the “Celtics Bench Production” per 33 minutes. I suspect the drop off might be even greater.
Anyway, great article and excellent food for thought - really got my braincells cranking!
Well done.. even if I disagree with you.
First of all, suggesting POB is an alternative for Doc is really no alternative at all, and honestly there is very little for you or I to use in support of our positions due to limited playing time. However, the limited time we have seen doesn’t lead any of us to think POB has the strength and fortitude to defend big men. Offensively, however, he could be a help.
And your point on failings throughout the roster, and not just the bench, are very true. Ray’s two worst games this year came against Portland and LA which puts even more stress on the bench to perform. Having more scoring on the bench can help make up that gap when Ray or Paul, or KG don’t have it going.
The perimeter defense has been weak and the rotations have been slow. Turnovers have come fast and furiously, and the team has sleepwalked through the last 2 weeks.
I continue to believe that at least one significant move is necessary and doing so may require trading House or TA. Is that too rich for your blood or can adding Giddens and/or Walker make up for their loss?
Thank Jon, Justin and Tom -
You guys are rounding out the observations quite nicely - especially with regard to the defense - which really is an indicator of sleepwalking with this team.
Regarding changes, I find it hard to tinker with too much until we actually determine that POB cannot run with the starters and improve his impression (it’s easy to look good when surrounded by all-stars). I also have too much faith in Clifford Ray’s ability to bring POB along to being a serviceable back-up when all it is coming down to his defense. He’s got offensive skill any other big man would die for.
Today we hear about Garnett Schooling POB in practice - why wasn’t this happening 3 months ago? Again, I think things take time and here in Celtics land we’ve seen too many youngsters bloom mid-season to write-off POB for this year. Certainly the Celtics need a plan B, because we saw the Lakers and then Portland go big with the purpose of taking advantage of the Celtics smallish back-ups.
Thanks all - and Happy New Year!
Jack
Good “pick your poison” discussion. Me, I blame Kevin Eastman and his blabby mouth for that T he drew against Portland. Someone has to put a muzzle on that guy, and fast. He’s a loose cannon.
That Eastman… he’s a mouthy SOB, isn’t he?